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I’ve been reading lately some pundits proclaiming the end of the PC is upon us. Smart mobile devices, first with smartphones and more recently with tablets (okay, let’s be honest, with the iPad as no other tablets have really gained significant traction yet) seem to be where all the action is at, have the most growth, and threaten to transform not just the consumer IT landscape but also the way business is conducted in the enterprise.
HP toyed with getting out of the PC business (and, interestingly, pulled the plug on its own foray into tablets, effectively throwing in the towel on its $1.2 billion bet on Palm) to focus on higher-end business hardware, software, and services. Other major PC manufacturers struggle to achieve low single-digit growth which barely keeps up with growth in the overall population and economy. It’s certainly tempting to see a sea-change in the world similar to that which ushered in PCs in the first place.
But as tempting as that viewpoint may be, I subscribe to the slightly less radical view that the PC isn’t going away anytime soon. Just as TV didn’t displace the radio, and the Internet didn’t displace TV, I see this new generation of device complementing and enhancing, but not doing away with, the workhorse that is the PC. Certainly the market for PCs may shrink a bit as some consumers decide they can do their email, access Facebook, and browse the web as easily from their iPads, but even more are likely to continue to value the usability, functional keyboard, and large screen provided by their PC and will use it for their “fixed time” connectivity activities, while using mobile devices for around the house and around town activities. Similarly, in the enterprise I see PCs continuing to be the main way to access key applications and data from the primary work area, while mobile devices provide a supplemental way for employees to be productive when away from their desk.
Mark Twain was reputed to love science and technology, having applied for many patents and befriending scientists and inventors. I’m sure he would have loved the technology in our current world, and would have been a strong appreciator of smart mobile devices, but I would guess he would agree that it is a bit too early to write the obituary for our old friend the PC.